Hospital admissions predictive software updated

A new version of predictive risk software to help identify patients most at risk of emergency hospital admissions has been released with added features and a faster running time.

The software, Patients at Risk of Re-hospitalisation+ (PARR+) allows primary care trusts and practices to work out who is most at risk of admission to hospital and provide a case management service to help keep them out of hospital.

The original tool, PARR, produced by the King’s Fund together with New York University and health data analysis firm Health Dialog, was launched in September last year and generated a lot of interest among PCTs.

PARR+, which is free to download from the King’s Fund offers a faster running time than the original software, focuses on a larger number of patients and identifies more patients within each risk threshold. The King’s Fund says the latest version will be of particular help in identifying patients with congestive heart disease, diabetes and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease who are most likely to end up in hospital. These conditions account for around 20 to 25 per cent of all emergency admissions.

Prof David Colin-Thome, National Clinical Director for Primary Care, said the refined software would increase the potential to improve the care delivered to people whose conditions sometimes go unmonitored and unmanaged until a hospital visit is necessary.

He added “ "The enhanced tool is easier to use and the added functions provide NHS organisations with increased options and flexibility to identify those people with one or more long term conditions and complex needs.”

The software uses a wide range of information to assess risk including a patient’s age, type of illness and recent contacts with the NHS.

The software can also be run in ‘real time’ to help identify patients who are still hospitalised following an emergency admission which enables a case management service to be offered at an earlier stage,

Jennifer Dixon, director of policy at the King’s Fund, said: “We have taken on board feedback from the health service and have developed an updated version of the tool that will target help at those patients most at risk. We hope this leads to better patient care, fewer unnecessary hospital admissions and better use of NHS resources.”

A further tool is being developed which combines both hospital and community data to help PCTs identify people with emerging risk before they are admitted to hospital. The King’s Fund says it is due to be launched in the early summer.

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