AI tool could predict type 2 diabetes 10 years in advance

Researchers at Imperial College London and Imperial College Healthcare NHS Trust have developed an AI tool which could identify people at risk of type 2 diabetes up to 10 years before they begin to develop the disease.

The AI-ECG Risk Estimation for Diabetes Mellitus (AIRE-DM) tool, which analyses electrocardiogram (ECG) readings during routine heart scans, could allow for early interventions, helping people take steps to reduce their risk of developing type 2 diabetes in future.

A research team, led by Dr Fu Siong Ng, a consultant cardiologist, and Dr Arunashis Sau, a cardiology specialist registrar at Imperial College Healthcare NHS Trust, developed the tool, using around 1.2 million ECGs from hospital records.

Using data from the UK Biobank, they validated the AI’s ability to detect subtle changes in routine ECGs that could signify that someone might be at higher risk of type 2 diabetes, years before their blood sugar levels begin to rise.

Dr Libor Pastika, clinical research training fellow at Imperial College London, said: “AI holds enormous potential to transform care that could lead to substantial improvements in health.

“By using AI to unlock insights hidden within ECG data, AIRE-DM could be revolutionary in identifying future risk of type 2 diabetes early on.

“By offering a cheap, accessible, non-invasive way to predict type 2 diabetes risk early, AIRE-DM could open up a new window of opportunity for more targeted, preventative care.

“Supporting people early on to make simple lifestyle changes could help more people avoid type 2 diabetes, and its associated complications.”

Although the AIRE-DM tool, was developed in 2024, it has not yet been used in clinical practice and will be the focus of prospective clinical studies, alongside other AI models, in 2025.

The research was funded by the British Heart Foundation (BHF) and supported by the NIHR Imperial Biomedical Research Centre, a translational research partnership between Imperial College Healthcare NHS Trust and Imperial College London.

Professor Bryan Williams, chief scientific and medical officer at BHF, said: “This exciting research uses powerful artificial intelligence to analyse ECGs, revealing how AI can spot things that cannot usually be observed in routinely collected health data.

“This kind of insight could be a gamechanger in predicting future risk of developing type 2 diabetes, years before the condition begins.

“Type 2 diabetes is a rapidly growing health challenge that increases the risk of developing heart disease, however with the right support it is possible for people to reduce their risk of developing the condition.

“We look forward to seeing how this technology could be incorporated into clinical practice, providing an opportunity to intervene early to help reduce risk and even prevent type 2 diabetes and its associated complications, altogether.”

In 2025 the NHS in England will also trial an AI tool that can predict patients’ risk of developing and worsening heart disease, and their risk of early death, using an ECG.